Research Paper·Published August 2026

The Decision Environment

An Operational Theory of Cognitive Conflict

By Rand Waltzman

Technology Fellow, Frontier Security Institute

First presented as: the keynote “The Evolution of Cognitive Security”, delivered by Dr. Waltzman at the Cognitive Security Conference in Las Vegas, August 6–7, 2026.

Summary

The paper argues that modern influence operations target not simply beliefs, but the decision environment, the conditions and constraints that support collective decision making. Adversaries seek to degrade or redirect its decision-support function, while defenders seek to preserve it.

Artificial intelligence transforms this competition by enabling persistent, individualized influence at unprecedented speed and scale. Large numbers of AI agents can conduct individualized interactions that need not share a common narrative yet collectively induce decisions that propagate changes throughout the same decision environment. The paper therefore proposes Cognitive Security Operations (CSO) as a discipline for monitoring, diagnosing, and modifying the decision environment so that it continues to support effective collective decision making.

It concludes with a research agenda for turning this theoretical foundation into an operational capability by characterizing decision environments, measuring their health, modeling their dynamics, building supporting systems, and validating the resulting discipline.

Key Takeaways

  • The real target of influence is the decision environment — not simply beliefs. Influence matters because it changes the conditions and constraints under which decisions are made.
  • Cognitive conflict is a competition to modify that environment — adversaries seek to degrade or redirect its decision-support function; defenders seek to preserve it.
  • AI changes the scale and tempo of influence — adaptive AI can use persistent, individualized interactions to modify the decision environment faster than defenders can recognize, diagnose, and respond to those changes.
  • Cognitive security requires defending the decision environment itself — CSO shifts the focus from detecting hostile messages and narratives to monitoring, measuring, diagnosing, and modifying the environment so that it continues to support effective collective decision making.

About the Author

Rand Waltzman Technology Fellow, Frontier Security Institute

Dr. Rand Waltzman brings over four decades of experience leading and performing research in artificial intelligence, with deep expertise in social media, cognitive security, and the information environment. He was formerly Deputy Chief Technology Officer and Senior Information Scientist at the RAND Corporation and previously served as acting Chief Technology Officer of Carnegie Mellon University’s Software Engineering Institute.

Dr. Waltzman completed two tours as a Program Manager at DARPA, where he created and managed the Social Media in Strategic Communications (SMISC) program and the Anomaly Detection at Multiple Scales (ADAMS) insider-threat program on his second tour and managed the Image Understanding program on his first tour. Earlier roles include Chief Scientist of the Applied Sciences Laboratory at Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Laboratories and an associate professorship in computer science at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm. He began his career in 1983 at Teknowledge Corporation, the world’s first commercial AI company.

Related Work

Senate testimony: “The Weaponization of Information: The Need for Cognitive Security” (2017). Waltzman’s foundational statement establishing cognitive security as a distinct discipline.